Conclusions Phase 1 – Climate risk assessment

In CLIMAAX Phase 1 the KÉZDI_adapt team members became competent in using CLIMAAX common methodology, additional theoretical knowledge regarding climate risk, resilience and adaptation was acquired giving the ability to increase understanding of local risk drivers using European datasets. As results the team achieved to implement and use fully customized regional hazard and risk assessment workflows regarding agricultural drought and river flood.

Main Findings:

Agricultural Drought:

• Maize: Slight yield loss under RCP 2.6 (+0.582%), but a significant drop under RCP 4.5 (-6.946%). However, RCP 8.5 leads to a sharp increase (+10.133%), indicating high vulnerability to extreme climate change.
• Wheat: Yield loss increases under RCP 2.6 (+4.786%) but decreases under RCP 4.5 (-1.768%) and RCP 8.5 (-4.596%).
• Potato: Shows resilience, with slight yield loss reductions under RCP 2.6 and 4.5 (-0.735%, -4.036%), but an increase under RCP 8.5 (+6.231%).
• Rapeseed: The highest mid-century yield loss occurs under RCP 2.6 (+7.537%), with smaller increases under RCP 4.5 (+2.991%) and RCP 8.5 (+0.858%).

• Maize: Stable revenue loss (5600) under RCP 2.6 & 4.5 but increases to 6400 under RCP 8.5.
• Wheat: Higher losses in 2046-2050 (320,000 EUR) across all RCPs compared to 2026-2030 (280,000 EUR under RCP 4.5 & 8.5).
• Potato: Remains financially stable with a constant loss (48,000 EUR).
• Rapeseed: Loss increases in 2046-2050 under RCP 8.5 (640,000 EUR) but stabilizes at 560,000 EUR for RCP 2.6 & 4.5.

River Flood:

• Flood Hazard Data Limitations: The dataset covers only large river basins (>150 km²) and lacks flood protection data, causing inaccuracies.
• 250-Year Return Period: Data limitations cause unreliable flood maps, especially for distant projections.
• Flood Damage Trends: Under RCP 8.5, flood damage escalates rapidly, with agricultural lands more vulnerable than residential areas.
• Longer Return Periods: Result in a larger flooded area in both examined scenarios.

Agriculture faces significant risks under extreme climate scenarios, particularly for maize and rapeseed, while potato remains the most resilient. River flood risks worsen under RCP 8.5, with higher and faster damage rates. Data limitations affect long-term flood risk assessments, requiring improved modelling and flood protection integration.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION (CLICK HERE)